Why there will be a war in the Middle East?

Why there will be a war in the Middle East?

War in the Middle East

Iran’s backing of the various pro-Islamic paramilitary groups has created an unfavorable situation for Israel. However, the U.S. is the primary political and military backer of Israel, so any hostile actions against Israel may pull the U.S. into yet another war in the Middle East. However, the U.S.’s political stance has shifted towards maintaining current relations and avoiding overtly hostile practices (as evidenced by the relatively recent military withdrawal from Afghanistan). Therefore, it’s hard to say for certain how the situation will progress. But it wasn’t always like this.

The USA and Iran history

The U.S. and Iran have historically been allies. In the 1950s, the countries were a part of the Central Treaty Organization and also signed a Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement. Iran’s oil was freely imported into the U.S., which was at that point one of the biggest oil importers in the world (before the Texas oil revolution in the early 2000s).

The Islamic Revolution

The mutually friendly political scene got turned on its head in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution. Practically overnight, Iran became an Islamic Republic. The new (and current) government aimed to remove any non-Muslim influences from the Middle East, making Israel and, by extension, the U.S. its enemies. The political situation has never really improved since then. Iran continued to support various paramilitary units in neighboring countries, which have effectively waged an unending war against Israel politically, ideologically, and, even at times, physically.

While Iran’s certainly not the only Muslim country in the Middle East, it’s by far one of the most politically active and militant about its goals. However, the country’s involvement in the current conflict that has embroiled Israel and the Gaza Strip is primarily through proxies that are closer to Israel’s borders, which has been called the Axis of Resistance.

You can watch this video about the projected war in the Middle East:

The Gaza Strip

• Among the most controversial and powerful of these proxies are the following:
• The Houthis in western Yemen
• Bashar al-Assad’s regime in southern Syria
• Shiite militias in Iraq
• and Syria Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

Various Palestinian forces scattered throughout Israel While these proxies have been fought on various fronts, primarily against Israel, their goals so far have pretty much aligned in terms of execution. All of these proxies are heavily militarized, politics- and faith-driven attempts to oust Israel and the U.S. from the Middle East entirely. And their efforts have only ramped up after the beginning of the Israel-Palestine conflict late last year.

The Houthis

Take the Houthis, for example. The revolutionary Shia Islam group overthrew the local Yemeni government in 2014. It quickly allied itself with Iran and became embroiled in one of the costliest UN humanitarian crises ever, causing as many as 24 million people to require aid.

Saudi Arabia, one of Iran’s largest rivals in the Middle East, has repeatedly had to provide military intervention in Yemen to stop the problems from escalating further, but this has resulted in only temporary alleviations of hostilities in the area. The Houthis regime is far removed geographically from the current conflict in Gaza, due to Yemen being separated from the strip by around 1,000 miles of Saudi Arabia’s land.

However, since Yemen maintains direct control over the Red Sea, it has been able to endanger Israel’s trade and economy while still being left to its devices. In particular, the Houthis regime is being actively armed by Iran with missiles, which it deploys from Yemen to Israel, trying to hit the country’s only Red Sea port of Eilat. So far, most strikes have been shot down by Saudi Arabian, Israeli, and U.S. anti-missile weapons and ships in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.

The few missiles that did make their way into Israel didn’t have a significant impact. If one of the strikes wasn’t shot down, which wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities if the Houthis maintain their aggressive stance, the damage would be catastrophic. A missile strike on Eilat could debilitate Israel’s ability to trade from the Red Sea, and the surrounding area is one of the most suitable for solar energy production.

Israel

Israel relies on natural gas reserves and solar energy production for much of its domestic energy, with plans to become completely independent from coal imports for energy production by 2030. Therefore, striking solar production plants could severely hamper the country’s ability to function in the 21st century, at least on the level needed to operate independently while surrounded by ideological adversaries.

Additionally, due to Yemen’s access to the vital Bab-el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea, the Houthis are in a prime position to influence Israel’s incoming and outgoing ship transport in the area. This led to some of the most controversial examples of coastal piracy, including an incident on 19th November 2023. One Israel-affiliated cargo ship was intercepted and hijacked by Houthi revolutionaries, with the crew members taken as hostages in Yemen.

According to the Houthis, the hostile interactions with ships that have ties with Israel will continue for as long as Israel and Palestine are embroiled in a state of near-perpetual war. The incidents with ships have continued, with the U.K., Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. providing battleship support for merchant ships passing through the Red Sea and the strait. The attacks have slowed international trade passing through the Suez Canal amid fears of piracy and hostage-taking, which can have profound butterfly effects on the global economy.

USA

In response, the U.S. and the U.K. have started targeting Yemen with missiles of their own, trying to take out Houthi weapons in pre-emptive strikes before they can be used against civilian targets. On January 11th, the U.S. launched around 100 missiles with the aim of destroying or disrupting 16 Iranian-backed Houthi military sites in the area.

The strikes killed five people and wounded six more, with the Houthis vowing that this response would not deter their “mission” of removing Israel from the Middle East.

A few days later, on the 14th, the U.S. launched another attack on Houthi military setups in an attempt to avoid those missiles being fired on ships and personnel. The U.S. would repeat yet another strike a few days later, on January 17th. This time, the missile response was partly due to a Houthi drone striking a U.S.-owned commercial ship in the Red Sea, which was only slightly damaged, and there were no casualties.

The second wave of attacks by the U.S. and U.K. started in early February. According to U.S. Central Command, the strikes were made in self-defense against Houthi anti-ship missiles preparing for launch on ships in the Red Sea. The Biden administration has come under scrutiny for this response against the Houthi militant regime.

If you like to know more about the projected wars in the Middle East, check Here.

Iran and the Middle East situation

While Iran has publicly claimed that the Houthis act independently of their commands and directions, they have been steadily supplying the revolutionary regime with the same weapons used to terrorize the Red Sea and disrupt trade.

It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibilities if the U.S. Central Command decided to stop fighting the symptom and start to go against the source of the problem—Iran itself. But while the Houthis have certainly been a thorn in America’s presence in the Middle East, they’re far from the only extenuating factor that moves the country toward a full-blown war with Iran and war in the Middle East. Other Iranian proxy militias are doing their own thing, and they are much closer to Israel.

Syria’s Assad regime is one of Israel’s most militant neighbors, and the countries have been in a de-facto war in the middle east ever since Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948 (war in the middle east). In 1967, Israel occupied the Golan Heights, a plateau in Syria that overlooks Israeli territory, making it a vital geopolitical area between the two warring countries.

While the Syrian government looks at the Golan occupation, it has been unable to do anything about the matter due to the currently ongoing Syrian civil war, which has displaced close to seven million people and resulted in over 600,000 casualties since 2012.

The regime currently controls about two-thirds of the Syrian territory, with other parts held by revolutionaries, rebels, and Turkey, Israel, and the U.S. Around 900 U.S. soldiers are stationed in Syria, having been relocated from the initial occupation site in southern Syria to the country’s eastern provinces. However, the decision to leave what can be called a barebones military presence points to a lack of direction of the U.S. Central Command on the matter of the Syrian civil war.

It also makes it impossible to predict whether the U.S. presence in Syria will have further effects on the Assad regime’s actions in the coming months, and even how Iran (who also backs Assad) will intervene in the conflict. Additionally, Assad has also been historically backed by Russia.

At the start of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Russia pulled most, if not all, of its military presence away from Syria and put it to work on the Ukrainian front. Meanwhile, the U.S. hasn’t needed to meaningfully join the conflict itself due to its ability to supply the EU with oil and natural gas as well as provide ammunition and weaponry directly to Ukraine.

As such, the country still has options remaining to bolster its holdings in the Middle East, while Russia has famously started to exhaust its military hardware. However, that might not matter in the long run, at least politically. While the Syrian conflict has raged for years, it’s currently entered a lull with no side willing to provide additional pressure or extend hostilities. Syria’s ability to meaningfully threaten the Golan Heights (and Israel itself) has been crippled during the first few weeks of the Gaza conflict.

On October 12, Israel bombed two of the country’s largest airports in Damascus and Aleppo.

By removing the airports from active service, it removed Syria’s ability to provide air support to its allies in the Israeli conflict, creating yet another deterrent against retaking the Golan Heights.

Even if Assad’s regime decides to go on the offensive and invade the Heights to create a war in the middle east, there’s no telling what would happen to the rest of the country. With several countries maintaining an active presence and occupying the areas of the state, as well as active rebellion concentrations to the country’s north, a full-blown move by Assad to the southwest could reignite the war in the rest of the country. But that doesn’t mean that Assad can’t passively provide assistance to other Muslim proxies in the area.

Due to the country’s connections to Iran, its territory can be accessed freely by military units to arm the two existing militias in Syria:

• Liwa Zainebiyoun
• Liwa Fatemiyoun

The former is a Pakistani militia force numbering between a few hundred and around 5,000, depending on which report you read. Meanwhile, the Fatemiyoun is made up of Afghan fighters and is estimated to have between 10,000 and 20,000 people.

However, with the war reaching as close to a temporary stalemate as possible, the two troops have been moving idly close to the contested Golan Heights with presumably nothing to do but wait for future developments. These proxies of Iran might be one of the first active members to take up arms should an official engagement begin on or near the Syrian territory, and it wouldn’t take much for Iran to point them to Israel or the U.S. At the same time, the militias are relatively independent of both Syria and Iran, so their actions may not have much bearing on the politics of the two countries they are using as support.

If a push into Golan Heights from the Zainebiyoun and the Fatemiyoun transpires, Iran might claim no responsibility for their actions. On the other hand, Israel would likely be forced to split its efforts from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and move some of its personnel to defend the area against incursion. This could necessitate further commitments from the U.S. army, either the troops already stationed in Syria or a renewed invasion to keep the status quo or move the situation in another direction.

When the two Iranian-backed militias decide to push into Israel, it might mean that Lebanon follows. Hezbollah is a revolutionary regime in the south of Lebanon founded in 1982 by the Shiite rebels who followed the Iranian revolution a few years previously.

It’s one of the movements most ideologically opposed to Israel. Furthermore, they also hold the most power to influence Israel’s economy and geopolitics by virtue of sharing a land border and being close to the country’s economic center in Tel Aviv. While the forces of the Zainebiyoun and the Fatemiyoun number a few thousands, Hezbollah has had years of Iranian backing and military support to fall back on.

According to some reports, it’s the biggest non-state military regime in the world, with claims of having close to 100,000 soldiers at its disposal. Even toned-down western reports suggest an active force of 60,000 people, close to the military power of Lebanon itself. More importantly, Hezbollah controls the southern parts of Lebanon, right on the border with Israel and the Syrian-contested Golan Heights. As such, it has ready access to Israeli lands and already instigated a brief war in 2006, which led to the deaths of around 1,200 civilians on Lebanon’s side.

The Prediction

The table below shows the predicted war in the middle east and the probable countries associated with th

This article is about the projected war in the Middle East. Do you think that there will be this war in the Middle East? If so, tell us in the comments between which countries.