The Emiratis have invested a substantial amount of money to establish a mercenary army in the last ten years. This army is fully reliant on the UAE and has taken control of significant areas in southern Yemen, including Aden. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has not developed a similar capability and has relied on mercenary militias from the Islah party to fight alongside them for the past nine years. This alliance is based on shared interests.

The UAE's Expansion Efforts and Saudi Concerns

In addition to the UAE's efforts to take control of Al-Mahra and Hadhramout provinces, as well as their attempt to separate the port of Mokha in Taiz province with the support of remnants of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Saudis perceive this as an attempt to encircle them. On the other hand, Bin Zayed is actively obstructing the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, and President Biden attempted to distance him from Bin Salman during a phone call in January.

Saudi Arabia's Shifting Priorities and Iran Relations

The Saudi Crown Prince is well aware of all these matters and has various aspirations. One of the reasons behind his swift shift towards Iran and attempts to normalize relations with them is the disagreements with the Emiratis. He has harbored negative intentions towards Bin Zayed as a result.

Bin Salman has a vivid recollection of Iran's assistance to Qatar in resisting the demands made by him and the former crown prince of the UAE. Now, if he intends to take action against the Emiratis, he recognizes the need for Iran's support and assistance. Despite outwardly appearing loyal to Iran, the Emiratis are cunningly working against them. This situation has given Bin Salman hope that he can align Iran with his plans.

Growing Discord between Bin Salman and Bin Zayed

The Wall Street Journal, in an extensive report, discussed the significant rift between Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE's President Mohammed bin Zayed. The newspaper highlighted that this crisis, which has been brewing for some time, became a tangible reality in December of last year. The report delved into the depth and magnitude of the differences between the two leaders. The primary cause of this crisis stems from the rivalry between the two leaders over regional dominance, particularly as American influence has waned. Bin Salman, in particular, believes that he no longer requires the guidance of his former ally, Bin Zayed.

Visible Tensions and Absences

One of the evident indications of this disagreement is Bin Zayed's absence from the last two summits held in Saudi Arabia. This includes the summit of Arab countries with the presence of the Chinese president and the second summit of Arab countries with the presence of Syria. Bin Zayed's non-attendance at these events serves as a visible sign of the strained relationship between the two leaders.

Bin Salman's Accusations and Threats

In a highly unusual move, Bin Salman held a briefing session in Riyadh last December with local journalists, during which he delivered a surprising message. He expressed that the UAE, a longstanding ally for several decades, had betrayed Saudi Arabia, and emphasized the need to assess the situation and explore potential actions. Bin Salman then presented demands to the UAE that were reminiscent of the requirements imposed on Qatar during the six-year-old dispute with the countries that had sanctioned Doha.

Bin Salman's remarks during the meeting suggested that the situation could escalate to a level even more severe than the Qatar crisis. His use of strong language and the threat to impose punishment on the UAE, akin to the blockade imposed on Qatar in 2017, raised concerns within the United States. The United States lacks the ability to establish a deterrent force to effectively address Iran, while the disagreement between the two Gulf countries remains at a critical level. Additionally, Washington is concerned that this disagreement could potentially hinder the resolution of the Yemeni conflict and impede Saudi Arabia's progress towards normalizing relations with Israel.

Implications for Regional Dynamics and US Interests

The ongoing backing of the UAE for the Transitional Council of Southern Yemen, which aims to secede from the northern part, implies that if the conflict persists, it will inevitably lead to a clash with Riyadh, which supports the deposed government. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaged in a competition over the execution of development and economic initiatives in war-ravaged Yemen. As per a government official from Joe Biden's administration, both Bin Salman and Bin Zayed are highly ambitious individuals who aspire to be the dominant players in the region, with others seeking their refuge. While they still maintain some level of cooperation, it appears that neither of them is content with the other being on an equal footing. Overall, the conflict between the two leaders does not bring any benefits to us.

Deterioration of Communication and Mediation Attempts

According to this American newspaper, sources close to both Bin Salman and Bin Zayed revealed that despite their previous closeness, the two individuals have not communicated with each other for over six months. The United States attempted to mediate the situation by arranging a conversation between Tahnoun bin Zayed, the brother of Mohammad bin Zayed and his security advisor, and bin Salman. Also, during the recent visit of Sheikh Tahnoun to Saudi Arabia, Bin Salman declined to engage in a conversation with him. However, Bin Salman confided in his close associates that a conversation with Tahnoun would be futile as he no longer has trust in the UAE, despite promises of concessions in Yemen made by Bin Zayed.