In a significant divergence, Saudi Arabia and UAE are at odds over the development of Jizan port by Aramco and its potential competition with Dubai. This difference in approach highlights the contrasting strategies of Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and UAE.

Emergence as Leading Forces during the Arab Spring

Almost a decade ago, Saudi Arabia and UAE played pivotal roles as influential actors during the "Arab Spring" movement that swept through West Asia and North Africa. These two nations provided financial and military backing to shape the trajectory of popular protests in countries like Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia.

However, their interventions led to a shift away from the initial objectives of these uprisings, resulting in a resurgence of authoritarian rule in the region. Furthermore, the Saudi-UAE alliance contributed to the blockade of Doha in June 2017.

Joint Intervention in Yemen and Emerging Differences

The joint military intervention by the Saudi-Emirati coalition in Yemen in March 2015 can be seen as a significant display of cooperation between the two nations in countering extremist ideologies in the region. However, as time went on, differences between Saudi Arabia and UAE began to emerge, particularly in terms of economic, geopolitical, and political competition.

A notable indication of these differences is the absence of Muhammad bin Zayed and Muhammad bin Salman from Arab-regional meetings.

Escalating Tensions in Yemen: UAE's Shift in Support

Initially, Saudi Arabia and UAE stood as allied nations during the Yemen crisis. However, over time, the UAE, in collaboration with Israel, began prioritizing support for the Southern Yemen Transitional Council. This shift in allegiance has contributed to the escalating tensions in Yemen.

According to experts, the UAE is believed to have three primary objectives in Yemen. Firstly, they aim to support the Southern Transitional Council in dividing Yemen into two separate entities, the north and the south. Secondly, they seek to gain control over strategic ports and islands, particularly Socotra in the Gulf of Aden. Lastly, their actions are aimed at undermining the reform process in Yemen. These goals directly contradict Saudi Arabia's interests, which include maintaining Yemen's unity, supporting the Riyadh-backed government's control over strategic locations, and preventing separatist movements from gaining power.

Amidst the ongoing situation, Saudi Arabia and UAE are actively engaging with the Houthis to advance their respective objectives in Yemen. Following the Beijing agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a favorable environment was created for political officials from the National Salvation Government and an Omani-Arab delegation to convene. During this meeting, the parties reached an agreement on prisoner exchanges and the easing of sanctions on Yemen. These diplomatic efforts reflect the ongoing negotiations and attempts to find common ground amidst the complex Yemeni conflict.

Battle for Business Dominance: Saudi Arabia and UAE

Prior to King Salman's reign and the rise of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai made significant strides in developing trade, tourism, and global transit, setting them apart from other Middle Eastern regions.

However, with bin Salman's ascension to power and the introduction of the ambitious 2030 plan, Saudi Arabia embarked on a journey to diversify its sources of income, leading to substantial advancements in its economic landscape.

Saudi Arabia's Economic Drive

At the core of Riyadh's economic drive lies the Saudi Investment Fund, boasting a substantial financial reserve of $400 billion. This formidable resource empowers Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to make investments both domestically and internationally, facilitating the development of infrastructure and fostering growth in various economic sectors within and beyond Saudi Arabia.

As part of his strategy to diversify Saudi Arabia's economy, Mohammed bin Salman proposed a new strategy to enhance Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy. This plan involves investing a substantial amount of 550 billion dollars by 2030 to develop infrastructure and promote the tourism sector. The key aspects of this strategy include the Neom project, which aims to create modern cities, as well as the construction of airports, roads, and ports. Additionally, there is a focus on establishing concert-cinema halls, hotels, shopping cruises, and preserving historical monuments predating the Islamic era. These initiatives demonstrate Bin Salman's strategic planning to outpace regional rivals, particularly the UAE, in capturing the lead in economic development and tourism.

There is another area of contention between these two countries, which revolves around Mohammed bin Salman's requirement for foreign investments. Saudi Arabia has made it clear to international companies that they can only operate within the country if they relocate their regional offices there. In the past, Dubai served as a hub for trans-regional companies, but with Bin Salman's policy shift, this dynamic is undergoing a change.

Strategic Vision Clash: Jizan Port and Dubai Competition

However, the primary area of disagreement between Saudi Arabia and UAE lies in Mohammed bin Salman's strategic vision for the development of Jizan port by Aramco, which directly competes with Dubai. Riyadh aims to transform Jizan into a pivotal industrial and transit hub in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, positioning it as the economic center of the Middle East.

Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Saudi Arabia and Russia collaborated to establish a new mechanism known as "OPEC Plus" in response to the decline in global oil prices. Under this framework, the participating governments took measures to prevent further price drops by adjusting daily oil production levels based on market demands, thereby increasing oil revenues.

Oil Production, Ukraine Crisis, and OPEC Dynamics

The UAE and Saudi Arabia, both seeking economic diversification and foreign investments, faced challenges related to oil production policies and global geopolitical dynamics.

Ukraine Crisis and Oil Production Disputes

The disagreement between the Saudi Arabia and UAE had roots in the Ukraine crisis. The UAE discreetly encouraged G7 countries to raise oil production, while Saudi Arabia aligned with Russia's policy of reducing output to secure concessions and maintain higher oil prices. The proposed reduction of daily oil production by 2 million barrels in 2021 led to tensions, with the UAE viewing it as unfair due to potential revenue losses.

Saudi Arabia and UAE Common Goals, Increasing Friction

Saudi Arabia and UAE share common aspirations of transitioning from oil-dependency, diversifying income sources, and attracting foreign investments. However, these shared goals have paradoxically fueled growing friction between these historical allies.

Conclusion

The evolving relationship between the Saudi Arabia and UAE is characterized by their distinct approaches to various regional and economic challenges. The competition over economic dominance, the clash of strategic visions, and differing perspectives on oil production have all contributed to the widening divergence between these two influential nations.