Analysts: American and British Attacks Ineffective Against Houthis' Naval Operations
Regional and national security experts contend that the US and British airstrikes on Yemen are insufficiently effective to halt the Houthis' naval actions targeting Israeli ships or ports.
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In a study, the Atlantic Council research center assessed the air and missile strikes conducted by the United States and the United Kingdom on Friday night against Yemen, examining their impact on curbing the attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement in the Red Sea. The study emphasized that as Zionist military aggression against the Gaza Strip persists, the likelihood of American involvement in conflicts in the Middle East and their escalation in the region grows.
The research, conducted by this research center and citing three national security experts, highlighted that the airstrikes by the US and Britain on Yemen are incapable of halting the Houthi naval assaults. This is a matter well acknowledged by both the US and British military commands. Despite this, they endeavor to swiftly restore their deterrence in the region through such actions.
In this scenario, Jonathan Baikov, a specialist in national and regional security, asserted that the present circumstances "undoubtedly imply a sustained reaction to Houthi attacks," signaling an escalation in the breadth of conflicts and confrontations within the region.
Additionally, Kirsten Fontenrose contends that the military intervention by the United States and the United Kingdom will simply serve to "further fuel the expansion of attacks and their frequency on international shipping," despite these two nations overlooking the fact that Houthi assaults exclusively target ships en route to occupied territories, with their final destination being one of Israel's ports.
Kirsten acknowledges that despite the airstrikes carried out by the US and UK, Houthi attacks will persist, albeit potentially weakening the movement's capacity to broaden or intensify military operations. On the other hand, Daniel Mouton contends that the American and British assaults on the Houthis' command and control hubs, particularly those linked to the movement's naval operations, will be constrained and not extend beyond that scope.
He elaborates: "The United States and England are fully aware that any audacious move would not only embroil the entire region in a large-scale conflict but would also draw these two nations into it, which they aim to avoid." Consequently, they will direct their assaults solely against the Houthis, thereby minimizing the likelihood of escalating tensions, as the targeted objectives will be military installations that are legitimate and lawful targets.
The reaction of Yemen's Houthis
Jonathan remarks on the Houthis' response, stating: "The Houthis have accumulated significant experience throughout their multi-year conflict with the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. During this period, they have consistently showcased and revealed their new weaponry during military parades."
He further explains, "Accumulating experience from the war with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, acquiring weaponry such as new missiles and drones, and ensuring that the Americans refrain from contemplating a ground assault or military engagement in Yemen, enables this faction to persist in its attacks unabated, regardless of the threats and military strikes by the United States and England."
In this context, Daniel underscores that the Houthis persisted in their activities even after the 2016 attacks and bombings by Saudi Arabia and the Arab coalition. They consolidated their military capabilities, leading to the expectation that they will continue targeting "Israeli" ships or vessels bound for "Israel" despite recent attacks.
However, Kirsten suggests that the Houthis may have miscalculated, believing that US President Joe Biden would refrain from military action against them on the eve of the election.
Tehran's reaction
Regarding Tehran's response, Kirsten believes that the assault on Yemen will not immediately heighten tensions between the United States and Iran. She explains: "Tehran does not perceive the necessity to engage in any direct confrontation or conflict, as it views its strategic objectives as already fulfilled through the diminishing popularity of America globally and the thwarting of Israel's endeavors to enhance its diplomatic ties with the Arab world."
However, Daniel argues that Iran will persist in supporting the Houthis, implying that the United States and England must devise a strategy to disrupt Iran's assistance to this faction, alongside considering attacks on Houthi positions.
Jonathan further comments, "The airstrikes conducted by the United States and Britain in Yemen convey a significant message to Iran. It underscores that Iran and its regional allies cannot act with impunity in the region, as any such actions will be met with retaliatory measures. This escalation could potentially result in a widespread and devastating regional conflict in the months and even years ahead."
Riyadh's position
Regarding Saudi Arabia's stance, Jonathan observes that Riyadh holds conflicting viewpoints. He elaborates, "Certainly, Riyadh is apprehensive about the Houthis terminating negotiations with Saudi Arabia and potentially seeking retribution by launching direct attacks on the kingdom's territory. However, Riyadh also recognizes that negotiations with the Houthis will become increasingly challenging if the movement's power continues to grow."
Jonathan noted, "The Houthis' power will unquestionably escalate further if left unchecked, particularly given their recent regional actions. This outcome is undesirable for Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the alarming threat posed by the Houthis' naval attacks necessitates immediate containment measures from Riyadh."
In this regard, Kirsten holds the belief that "Throughout the Saudi-led aggression in Yemen, the United States consistently censured Saudi actions. It appears that the Saudis now perceive an opportunity to retaliate for past American criticisms by withholding support for the actions of the United States and the United Kingdom in Yemen."
She further adds, "In essence, by refraining from condemning the American strikes, the Saudis are conveying a message to the White House that it is now their turn to assert influence. Consequently, it is anticipated that they will simply observe these attacks without intervention."
Kirsten emphasizes that "these attacks lack the requisite efficacy to impede the progress of the political process or deter the naval activities of the Houthis."
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