Post-Gaza War Scenarios and Israel's Future Relations with the Gulf States
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Israel has shifted its approach since October 7th, departing from its traditional stance of self-defense. Instead of carefully targeting specific sites in Gaza, it has adopted a strategy of widespread punishment, leading to significant civilian casualties and maximum damage.
Reports indicate that half of the ammunition utilized by Israel during the conflict consisted of unguided bombs, resulting in a higher toll of Palestinian civilian lives.
The impact of the Gaza war is starkly evident: over two million people displaced, thousands of homes demolished, more than 28,000 fatalities, and approximately 70,000 injuries. According to assessments by aid agencies and health authorities in Gaza, women and children comprise around 70% of the casualties. Tragically, nearly 10,000 of the deceased are children under the age of 18, with almost 8,000 others reported missing.
In response to the devastation, Rafah, a border town between Palestine and Egypt, which previously housed a population of 300,000, now hosts almost half of Gaza's residents. Prior to the conflict, the population of the Gaza Strip stood at 2.2 million. Despite the evacuation of many towards Rafah, the population of this area continues to grow.
Furthermore, the survivors of Israeli military actions in Gaza now face heightened risks of infectious and other diseases spreading rapidly. Over the past two weeks, there has been a significant rise in cases of jaundice, respiratory infections, and diarrhea among children under five, with similar trends observed across other age groups.
In response to the crisis, Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged President Biden to exert pressure on Egypt to open its borders with Gaza and accommodate Palestinian refugees. Additionally, certain members of the Israeli cabinet have openly discussed rendering the Gaza Strip uninhabitable by advocating for the complete destruction of settlements, buildings, schools, mosques, and hospitals within Gaza.
If evidence of genocide emerges and is confirmed by the International Court, the United States may find itself implicated in the trial due to its involvement in the military operations. Under international law, such actions are considered criminal offenses. The U.S.'s connection to the case primarily stems from its provision of weaponry to Israel. Since the onset of the Gaza war, the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Watch reports that Washington has dispatched significant quantities of offensive weapons and ammunition to Israel, including 15,000 bombs and 57,000 mortars.
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Lessons from Israel's Military Attacks in Gaza
Israel's recent military campaign offers valuable lessons. Firstly, it underscores the perils of prolonged, divisive, and costly military interventions, as evidenced by the United States' experiences in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Secondly, while Hamas' military infrastructure in Gaza may be dismantled, the underlying ethos of resistance against occupation and the quest for self-determination remain resilient and cannot be easily subdued.
Moreover, the failure of future negotiations between Israel and Palestine to achieve a political resolution through a two-state solution would likely preclude lasting peace and stability in the region. However, the proliferation of illegal settlements in the West Bank and the expansion of existing Israeli settlements have significantly undermined the viability of the two-state framework. Many observers have cautioned against the continued construction of such settlements, which contravenes international law.
Presently, amidst the Gaza crisis, there is a prevailing consensus among observers that the two-state solution must be an indispensable component of post-war negotiations between Israel and Palestine.
Israel's Lack of Post-Gaza War Preparedness
The current scenario presents a lack of clarity regarding Israel's endgame, as Prime Minister Netanyahu appears unwilling to halt the ongoing conflict anytime soon. Assessments from the Israeli military suggest that the Gaza war may persist until 2024 to fully dismantle Hamas' military infrastructure.
Israeli military commander, Harzi Halevi, has cautioned that the absence of a comprehensive plan for managing the post-war period in Gaza and ensuring its security could nullify Israel's achievements over the past four months of conflict. This unpreparedness for the "day after" in Gaza coincides with Israel's announcement of a shift in its military tactics against Hamas, leading to growing apprehension within Israel.
The extensive devastation and high casualties resulting from the Gaza war could gradually erode Israel's economy and international standing while fueling a sense of vengeance among a new generation of Palestinians.
Many Palestinians perceive Israel's response to Hamas, characterized by collective punishment of Gazans, as cruel and inhumane. Despite apprehensions about Israel's actions, Hamas remains a prominent figure among Palestinians and wields significant influence.
In the long term, a prolonged struggle risks bolstering Hamas' support among the besieged population of Gaza, contributing to the erosion of the Palestinian Authority's credibility and fostering the perception that it serves as a mere extension of Israel's military power.
The Adverse Consequences of Israel's Normalization Efforts
The prospects for ongoing normalization negotiations between Arab nations and Israel appear bleak. Analysts, like Alterman, suggest that this situation reflects global Southern solidarity with Palestinian aspirations, European criticism of Israel's military actions, and escalating internal tensions within the United States.
These dynamics threaten to weaken the longstanding dual support Israel has enjoyed from both the United States and Europe. Moreover, the potential for regional spillover could exacerbate divisions among regional states regarding the costs of aligning with Israel.
Similar to previous US military interventions abroad, the repercussions of the Gaza conflict are difficult to predict. While Israel's military operations may weaken or dismantle Hamas' infrastructure, they also fuel the resolve of a new generation of Palestinians against the occupation, posing long-term security risks for Israel.
Furthermore, Washington's credibility in the Middle East is on the line, particularly as the US has opposed or withheld support for UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire and aid to Gaza. Continuous Israeli airstrikes have hindered aid delivery to Gaza, exacerbating one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises.
Israel's pursuit of normalized relations with Arab countries, primarily focusing on economic ties while sidestepping the Palestinian issue, has boomeranged in the aftermath of the Gaza conflict. Additionally, the crisis has exposed the Biden administration's failure to effectively pursue a diplomatic, two-state solution, despite verbal endorsements.
Consequently, the United States' credibility and diplomatic influence in the Middle East have diminished significantly. Similarly, Israel is poised to face heightened criticism from the international community, particularly regarding the Operation Al-Aqsa storm following the intense military campaign in Gaza, which raises serious concerns about potential war crimes.
However, it is evident that repeating misguided actions will not yield positive outcomes. Proponents of the Gaza offensive should reconsider the lessons learned from US military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, which resulted in high civilian casualties, protracted conflicts, and ultimately, unsuccessful political outcomes.
The US intervention in Afghanistan failed to prevent the resurgence of the Taliban, while the emergence of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the Arabian Peninsula has posed enduring challenges to regional stability.
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