Why is Turkey securing trade with Israel as Erdogan cheers on Hamas?
The Turkish container ship TURKON ISTANBUL reached the port of Haifa, Israel on May 6
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The Turkish president may be the loudest leader advocating for the Palestinians, yet he has disregarded calls for sanctions that could genuinely impact Israel. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself navigating a complex situation, caught between his defense of Hamas and the burgeoning Turkish-Israeli trade.
Under the two-decade rule of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), Ankara's pro-Palestinian rhetoric has intensified, infused with Islamist themes. However, Turkey’s commercial ties with Israel have simultaneously expanded, with bilateral trade reaching $8.9 billion in 2022, a significant increase from $1.4 billion in 2002. In that same year, Israel ranked as Turkey's 10th largest export market and the 29th largest source of imports.
The current Gaza crisis erupted at a moment when Erdogan was aiming to advance his recently normalized relations with Israel, adding to his frustration. This situation is reminiscent of his infamous outburst against Israeli President Shimon Peres in Davos in 2009, following another conflict in Gaza that derailed Turkish mediation efforts between Israel and Syria.
The recent conflict initiated shortly after Turkey restored full diplomatic ties with Israel, with Erdogan seeking a central role in the eastern Mediterranean's energy dynamics. Following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York in September, Erdogan indicated that Netanyahu would visit Turkey in October or November, focusing on energy cooperation, including joint drilling operations and transporting Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey. However, these plans have now been postponed.
While Erdogan’s fiery condemnation of Israel might appear audacious, Turkey's trade relations tell a differing narrative. Ultimately, Erdogan’s bold stance serves as a strategic maneuver to fortify waning support among his party's grassroots based on challenging established norms while maintaining the existing order.
Erdogan's position regarding Israel remains consistent. Following Hamas's attacks on October 7, his initial reaction was not to urge Israel to act with restraint but to seek the expulsion of Hamas leaders from Turkey. As opposition grew against Israel's siege of Gaza, Erdogan again condemned Israel, labeling it a terrorist state and calling for investigations into alleged war crimes. This led both Israel and Turkey to recall their ambassadors.
Although the ongoing Gaza crisis has stalled the rapprochement with Israel, economic relations persist, and it appears Erdogan is reaping personal benefits. Recent investigations suggest that Erdogan's son, Ahmet Burak Erdogan, owns vessels involved in shipping to Israel, along with connections such as the son of former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, benefiting from this trade as well.
Contrary to some media reports suggesting a significant rift in Turkey-Israel relations – such as France 24's headline “Turkey-Israel ties in tatters over Erdogan address” and Al Jazeera’s “Gaza war pushes tumultuous Israel-Turkey ties into ‘deep freezer’” – the historical pattern indicates that Erdogan is disinterested in altering the status quo. While formal diplomatic relations may fluctuate, trade between the two nations continues to thrive. Erdogan's actions suggest that instead of being a steadfast proponent for Palestine, he has inadvertently supported Israel's economic stability by supplying goods essential for the continuation of Israeli presence and occupation in Palestine. It is foreseeable that once the conflict subsides, Turkey may reinitiate efforts to reconcile.
Renowned for his pragmatism, Erdogan adeptly maneuvers geopolitical landscapes to further Turkey's interests. He is prepared to set aside principles, adjust his stance, balance relations between the West and Russia, and reconcile with adversaries when it aligns with his goals.
Central to Turkey’s ambition for regional leadership is the Palestinian issue. Erdogan employs a neo-Ottoman narrative to engage Turkish voters by cultivating a vision of an ascending Turkey tasked with protecting marginalized Muslim populations, including the Palestinians. This concept of Turkish exceptionalism is interwoven throughout Erdogan's foreign policy rhetoric and underpins his “Century of Turkey” platform. Domestically, he aims to shape his legacy as the leader who revitalized the Turkish empire while also standing firm in solidarity with Palestinians and Jerusalem.
As he navigates the Middle East crisis, Erdogan confronts a considerable dilemma: he must placate his Islamist, pro-Palestinian political base while avoiding complete alienation from Israel, a key economic and geopolitical ally with which he has been fostering warmer relations. Simultaneously, Erdogan sees a chance to establish himself as a prominent player in the politics of the Middle East, presenting himself as a potential mediator in the ongoing crisis. Understanding his strategy necessitates looking beyond mere rhetoric and diplomatic overtures.
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