Global Chess: US and UK Tactics in Gaza & Yemen
Explore US and UK tactics in Gaza, revealing a geopolitical chess game with global implications and delicate maneuvers in Yemen.
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The United States and the UK are wary of taking a greater risk by providing an opportunity for Israel to shift global public opinion away from its war in Gaza, particularly at a time when the leaders of this government are facing charges in the international court for alleged crimes against humanity.
Despite the White House and Biden's persistent efforts to shield Israel and find a dignified way out of the Gaza war, they find themselves caught in a challenging situation. On one side, they confront an uncompromising faction within Netanyahu's war cabinet that views the continuation of the war as essential for their survival, opposing Biden and his peace initiatives. On the other side, they remain committed to safeguarding the existence of Israel.
As the 100-day war between Israel and Gaza looms, there is a conspicuous absence of indications pointing towards a victory for Israel and the U.S. The global response, on one hand, and the reaction from regional resistance to the perceived genocide and massacre of Palestinians, on the other hand, have generated numerous challenging conditions for both the White House and Tel Aviv. These conditions not only exert significant pressure but have also resulted in a sense of isolation for both entities.
Amidst this scenario, the naval strategy employed by the Houthis and the Yemeni government to impose a naval blockade on Israel has significantly altered Yemen's position within the geostrategic equations outlined by the United States in the Red Sea and the crucial Strait of Bab al-Mandab. The U.S. currently finds itself without a viable solution for this unforeseen development, both in the present and foreseeable future. Consequently, the White House promptly dispatched its special representative to the region to facilitate a political agreement and ceasefire between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. In a notable shift, concessions were offered to the Yemeni side that were previously not on the table for discussion.
In the current circumstances, the United States prioritizes avoiding an extensive, costly, and widespread conflict. The Biden administration is well aware that engaging in a serious conflict with the Yemenis, even if capable of inflicting significant losses on Yemen, would entail considerable costs and result in a highly expensive and risky undertaking.
The Americans are acutely aware of Israel's current state marked by damage and casualties, placing it in a precarious situation. Consequently, they are cautious not to become entangled in such a perilous situation, steering clear of involvement in regional conflicts to avoid being drawn into an abyss of complexity and potential repercussions.
Despite the military actions taken by the United States, in collaboration with the United Kingdom, against Yemen since Friday morning, and their subsequent escalation on Friday evening, it appears that the intention is not to entangle themselves in a full-fledged war in Yemen.
The United States is well aware that the global conditions are not conducive to accepting its involvement in another war, recognizing that any such conflict would not only engulf the entire region but also have far-reaching implications worldwide. The reluctance to engage in another war is grounded in the understanding of the potential global consequences such an escalation could bring about.
For this reason, the U.S. and British attacks in Yemen are serving a diversionary purpose in the broader context of Israel's war in Gaza. Through these limited and calculated strikes, the intention is twofold: firstly, to shift the global public opinion away from Israel's war crimes in Gaza and secondly, to provide an opportunity for Israel to attain, at the very least, a symbolic victory. The hope is that this strategic maneuvering will allow for a relatively dignified way out to the Gaza war, enabling Israel to withdraw from the region.
Hence, through the use of psychological and political pressure coupled with diversionary tactics, the United States and the United Kingdom aim to establish a form of passivity and deterrence, both within Yemen and at the regional level. Their strategy involves avoiding direct involvement in a substantial conflict while attempting to manipulate perceptions and attention to achieve their desired outcomes.
The United States and the UK are acutely aware that engaging in a large-scale action carries the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Israel's borders. Additionally, such involvement could lead to insecurity in the international waterways of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. Furthermore, there is the potential for exacerbating the energy crisis in Europe, particularly in the middle of winter, underscoring the complex and interconnected nature of the geopolitical landscape that these nations must navigate.
More importantly, the United States and the UK recognize that their regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are facing challenging circumstances. Moreover, the bases, forces, and military facilities of these allies in West Asia are considered legitimate targets by the resistance. This adds another layer of complexity, as any large-scale action could potentially endanger the security and stability of their allies in the region.
Hence, the United States and the UK are not inclined to take a bigger gamble than providing an opportunity for Israel and diverting global public opinion and the attention of nations away from the war in Gaza. They are reluctant to impose additional costs on themselves beyond what they have already endured in the current geopolitical landscape.
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