Israel's Fragility Heightens on the Eve of Quds Day

The current narrative surrounding Israel depicts a stark departure from its past image. Once viewed as a beacon of stability in the region, recent headlines portray a nation grappling with unprecedented challenges. For the visionary founders of Israel, the prospect of attaining significant regional influence seemed within reach, a tangible aspiration driving their endeavors. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically.

In the wake of mounting political turbulence, characterized by the collapse of successive cabinets and the recurrent necessity for premature elections, Israel's internal dynamics have been laid bare. Not long before the eruption of Operation Al-Aqsa, the Telegraph offered insights into the structural tumult within Israel's political framework, contextualizing it as a facet of the evolving political landscape in the "sole democracy of the Middle East."

Despite these internal upheavals, Israel's military prowess has remained formidable, bolstered by the strategic deployment of American and Western weaponry. A notable Israeli researcher emphasized this resilience, asserting that Israel possesses the requisite strength to safeguard its security against external threats. Moreover, assessments from American institutions underscore Israel's formidable position, ranking it among the world's top 10 powers with the fourth-largest military force.

According to these institutions, Israel had maintained a robust political influence, ranking sixth globally, trailing only behind Germany and preceding France. Hence, the widespread anticipation did not foresee the profound impact that the operations conducted by Palestinian groups on October 7 would have on Israel. Indeed, these events have defied all prior assessments of Israel's circumstances.

Since October 7, Israel has undergone a seismic shift, altering its essence in every facet. Reports on Israel's political clout have dwindled, overshadowed by the tumultuous events unfolding within the nation. Likewise, the once-assumed impregnability of Israel's security apparatus has been called into question, signaling a paradigmatic change in the perception of its stability.

Security that no longer exists

In the analysis of events concerning Israel, it's crucial to acknowledge the significant role the United States played, particularly following Israel's collapse, in establishing a semblance of balance of power in the Middle East through leveraging Israel. However, this pivotal role of Israel has suffered severe setbacks.

In recent years, rocket assaults launched by Palestinian factions against Israel have underscored the limitations of the Iron Dome defense system in thwarting potential missile strikes. Despite the relatively low cost of Palestinian rockets, valued in the thousands of dollars, juxtaposed with the considerably higher cost of Israeli defense systems, in the tens of millions, the mere threat of rocket attacks imposes substantial economic burdens on Israel. Moreover, the recent escalation, with approximately five thousand rockets fired in under 30 minutes, has exposed the Iron Dome's vulnerabilities to a degree previously underestimated.

Furthermore, Palestinian drones have emerged as an effective tool in the conflict. Utilizing relatively inexpensive, homemade drones, Hamas has targeted communication infrastructure across Israel, disrupting vital communications networks and catching the Israeli military off guard.

As Israel's offensive in Gaza unfolded, local media reported staggering economic repercussions: the conflict inflicted an average daily damage of $260 million on the Israeli economy, resulting in an 18% reduction in the national workforce. Estimates placed the total cost of the war to Israel at around $51 billion at the time, equivalent to nearly 10% of the nation's gross domestic product. It's highly likely that these figures have surged as Israel's military operations in Gaza persist, potentially doubling over time.

Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, the victory of creativity over technology

The recent conflict marked a significant departure from Israel's previous setbacks, primarily due to a glaring lapse in its cyber and intelligence capabilities. How could an attack of such magnitude evade detection by Israeli security and intelligence apparatuses?

According to Israeli media, this failure is emblematic of a "massive information failure." It occurred despite Israel boasting some of the world's most sophisticated surveillance and intelligence systems. The Economist weighed in, stating that the Palestinians' success in outmaneuvering Israel's intelligence apparatus is likely to prompt scrutiny from armed forces globally. The Palestinian incursion demonstrated that even the most advanced surveillance technologies can be circumvented, raising questions about the efficacy of modern surveillance measures.

Central to understanding Israel's defeat is the recognition of the Palestinians' adept use of relatively simple yet innovative technology and tactics. It's become evident that traditional sources of power hold diminishing sway in the contemporary landscape. The recent U.S. experience in Afghanistan highlighted the waning influence of major military powers in determining conflict outcomes. In this context, the Palestinians have shown the ability to compel major military powers to withdraw using asymmetric warfare methods and minimal resources, signaling a paradigm shift in modern warfare dynamics.

The world alongside Palestine; The end of Israel's Facade of Innocence

In recent years, the Palestine question had somewhat receded from the global public consciousness, but a seismic shift has occurred. As noted by Foreign Policy, while the United States directed its attention towards conflicts involving China and Russia's actions in Ukraine, Arab nations largely remained silent on Palestine, despite occasional verbal condemnations of Israel. However, the landscape has abruptly shifted, with Palestine now thrust into the forefront of global attention.

Foreign Policy further observes that while countries traditionally aligned with the global south have historically supported the Palestinian cause, the defense of Palestine has transcended geographical boundaries, garnering worldwide solidarity. Demonstrations in support of Palestine are now widespread across Europe, with some rallies witnessing unprecedented turnouts. Even within the United States, significant opposition has emerged among congressional officials against Israel's policies.

According to Mearsheimer, an esteemed scholar of international relations, Israel's current strategy of targeting civilians is counterproductive and incurs substantial costs. This shift in sentiment is evident in global protests, with a staggering 95% directed against Israel. This marks a stark departure from Israel's previous portrayal as the victim in the Palestinian crisis.

Drawing parallels between the aftermath of September 11 and Israel's current predicament, the Rand Institute highlights a stark contrast. Following the 9/11 attacks, numerous countries rallied behind the United States, with NATO invoking Article 5 for the first time in its history. Conversely, Israel finds itself embroiled in a unilateral conflict, facing diplomatic reprisals as multiple nations recall their ambassadors in protest against Israeli actions.

The present reality casts doubt on the viability of the two-state solution, long touted by the United Nations and Western nations as the pathway to resolving the Palestinian crisis. It has become increasingly apparent that Israel neither possesses the will nor the inclination to pursue equitable solutions for Palestinians. Consequently, Israel's foreign policy suffers significant setbacks, most notably the suspension of peace negotiations with the Saudi government.

Despite the Saudi government's historically ambivalent stance on Palestine, internal pressures and a desire to portray a progressive image have compelled it to adopt human rights rhetoric in support of Palestinian civilians. Consequently, efforts towards peace with Israel have been shelved to a certain extent, reflecting the shifting dynamics in the region.

What is left of Israel's dreams?

The former leaders of Israel, who had decisively defeated Arab armies in multiple wars, could scarcely have envisioned the precarious state in which Israel finds itself today. Even more alarming is the fact that the current predicament facing Israel has been precipitated by entities that hardly qualify as sovereign nations in the conventional sense.

This reality yields two inexorable conclusions. Firstly, Israel's reliance on Western military hardware for security is no longer tenable. The disruption of trade routes by relatively inexpensive rockets and the ability of guerrilla groups to neutralize the regime's defense systems highlight the vulnerability of Israel's traditional defense mechanisms.

The Israel of today bears little resemblance to its 20th-century counterpart. The once-prominent vision of Greater Israel as a dominant regional power has evaporated, and Israel's decline appears more imminent than ever before.