Pervasive Pessimism in Israel: Declining Optimism and Leadership Inefficacy Plague Regime's Future

As the occupying Israel marks its 76th anniversary, a record number of settlers have lost faith in Israel's future, with polls indicating a historic low in optimism about the regime's prospects.

The deteriorating security situation and the significant gap between the secular and religious populations in Israel have led settlers to be more pessimistic about the future of the regime than ever before.

This issue has been highlighted by recent surveys conducted by Hebrew media and study centers. As Israel marks its seventy-sixth anniversary, views on the future of the regime are darker and more ambiguous than ever before.

The question that arises is why Israelis have consistently held pessimistic views about the future of their regime and why they are always fearful of what lies ahead?

Samuel Rosner, who has conducted several polls for the Jewish Nation Policy Institute, highlights that the ongoing war in Gaza and various social factors have played a significant role in shaping the general optimism and pessimism among settlers regarding Israel's future.

He further notes, "A comparison of the data collected last January, less than six months ago, with the data from last month reveals a significant decrease in the rate of optimism among settlers. Recent polls on Israel's future indicate that optimism regarding the regime's future has declined from 48% to 37%. Additionally, pessimism about Israel's future has risen from 21% to 30%."

He points out, "These polls also indicate that the level of pessimism and optimism among settlers towards Israel has decreased from 7.3 to 6.3, a significant decline that should not be easily dismissed. Additionally, settlers have lost confidence in the regime's ability and power to win the ongoing war in Gaza, a conflict they deem crucial and even existential. Now, the majority of settlers believe that Israel has no chance of winning this war, further fueling pessimism about the future of this regime."

General optimism among settlers was at 74% last January, but has now decreased to 62% in surveys conducted this month," Rosner explains. "However, there are many factors contributing to this decline, with the Gaza war being one of them. The deepening social divisions between various population groups, such as Jews and Arabs, ideological differences among rightists, moderates, and leftists, as well as the widening religious divides between secularists, traditionalists, and religious individuals, are among the other key factors."

He highlights these gaps and differences as concerning factors that influence people's perspectives and interpretations of current realities and the future, ultimately leading to the emergence of various political narratives.

Rosner emphasizes that the findings of these polls suggest that pessimists are of the opinion that Israel's political framework needs to undergo a transformation, or else they foresee a challenging future ahead. On the other hand, the perspective of optimists is more intricate; they advocate for the continuation of the current regime's policies, believing that these policies will not only propel Israel to the brink of crisis but also foster its advancement and progress.

There is also a third perspective to consider: regardless of whether the settlers hold a pessimistic or optimistic outlook, whether they deem policy changes necessary or advocate for the status quo, they all share the belief that a challenging and arduous future lies ahead for Israel and its inhabitants.

He also highlights the profound differences in the settlers' outlook on the future of Israel. According to him, the chasm between the secular and religious communities is particularly wide. This disparity is rooted in their fundamental beliefs, which leads to a stark contrast between the pessimistic views of traditionalists and the more optimistic outlook of the religious. Moreover, religious extremists are even more pessimistic than their religious counterparts, but paradoxically, they seem more optimistic than the secular settlers.

There is a significant finding: 44% of religious Jews are optimistic about the future of Israel, while only 14% of secular Jews share this optimism. This highlights a substantial gap of approximately 30% in social perspectives on Israel's future, which is notably large.

In this context, Rosner cautions that Israeli soldiers, who are engaged in conflicts across both the Gaza Strip and northern occupied Palestine, bear a crucial responsibility for safeguarding Israel's future. Their conviction in a promising future directly impacts their combat effectiveness, as they question the purpose of their fight when faced with uncertainty and a lack of optimism. Similarly, businessmen and investors will only inject capital into Israel when they foresee profitable returns, which significantly influences Israel's international trade position.

Rosner asserts that these surveys provide valuable political insights that will inevitably shape the policies of both the incumbent administration and future governments. The most pressing concern emerging from public sentiment in Israel is the sharp decline in optimism. Currently, Israelis are experiencing unprecedented pessimism, believing their government is confronted by relentless crises that compel them to face unsettling realities.

Rosner further stresses that the most alarming aspect is the prevalent belief among Israelis that their nation is in decline and lacks a promising future. Simultaneously, the country's politicians appear incapable of unifying to cultivate prosperity, stimulate foreign investment, foster growth and development, and maintain the nation's elite.