The Al-Aqsa Storm and the Prospects of Normalizing Relations with Israel

In a span of just a few years, the leaders of multiple Arab governments joined Donald Trump for a group photo. This gathering marked the inception of the "Abraham" agreement, a collaborative statement involving Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. The agreement, finalized in August 2020.

Following the signing of the agreement, the-then US Secretary of State, Pompeo, expressed his optimism regarding the participation of the Palestinians in serious negotiations with Israel. He hoped for their collaboration with the United States. Additionally, during the signing ceremony, President Trump remarked on the potential for peace among five countries, including Saudi Arabia, with Sudan and Oman being considered as strong contenders for immediate progress.

Saudi Arabia and the normalization of relations

Over the course of several decades, the historical collaboration between Saudi intelligence and Israel has steadily grown stronger. In recent years, the topic of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has gained significant attention in media, political, and international spheres, particularly with the emergence of the Abraham Agreement. The relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia initially centered around security and intelligence cooperation, which included Israeli citizens traveling with non-Israeli passports.

Recently, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Bin Salman, emphasized the significance of normalization with Israel. He mentioned that Riyadh is increasingly approaching closer ties with Tel Aviv on a daily basis, with a condition of fulfilling Palestinian goals. However, following the Al-Aqsa Storm operation, reports emerged about the suspension of Saudi Arabia's normalization process, corroborated by some Saudi officials.

In the face of Arab nations' staunch opposition to compromise with Israel, the past few years have witnessed a surprising wave of normalization between Israel and multiple Arab states.

Arab leaders lean on the wind

In order to maintain their rule amidst a lack of popularity and legitimacy among the people, the Arab rulers of the region find themselves compelled to depend on arrogant entities like the United States and Israel.

In this regard, Trump announced during his speech: “We protect Saudi Arabia. Would you say they’re rich. And I love the King, King Salman. But I said ‘King - we’re protecting you - you might not be there for two weeks without us - you have to pay for your military.”

Meanwhile, as the momentum for normalizing relations between several Arab countries and Israel gains traction, Israel has been grappling with significant internal crises in recent years.

The Israeli media literature has witnessed an extraordinary surge in the usage of terms like "crisis," "unprecedented insecurity," "intifada," "civil war," "social explosion," and ultimately, "collapse" over the past few months. Analysts employ these words extensively to characterize and elucidate the challenging circumstances confronting Israel. Notably, in the last few years, Israel has undergone five elections, resulting in the fall of five cabinets.

Addressing the internal crisis within the regime last year, Israeli President Isaac Herzog remarked, "I implore you... the sentiment across Israel is that the situation resembles a powder keg and is veering toward a profound internal conflict... I genuinely sense that we are on the brink of a fierce conflict."

In connection to this matter, Ronin Manlis, the former spokesperson of the Israeli army, additionally expressed that the present state of affairs in Israel is the most challenging it has encountered in the last two decades.

Over recent months, numerous cities spanning from the northern to the southern regions of Israel, such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Beersheba, Rishon Letzion, and Herzliya, have witnessed protests against Netanyahu's far-right cabinet and proposed amendments to Israel's judicial system. Issues that were once instrumental in fostering unity among diverse ethnic, religious, and racial groups in Israel are now subjects of contention within the nation's discourse.

Concerning this matter, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Holloway, cautioned that the prevailing differences and polarization among Israelis are likely to permeate into the military.

He expressed, "The existing political divide in Israel is now reaching into the military and is poised to intensify. Should this trend persist, a form of conflict and factionalism may extend within the army itself."

Now the fundamental question arises: How can Arab leaders find satisfaction in their relations with a regime grappling with profound internal and external crises? Despite possessing the world's most advanced military, Israel appears incapable of effectively addressing various resistance groups. Is it prudent for Arab leaders to derive contentment and reliance from such a situation?!

What did the Al-Aqsa storm bring to normalizers?

Several days after the commencement of the "Al-Aqsa Storm," various schemes by Arab, Western, and American leaders to promote a new agenda in the region and facilitate normalization have encountered setbacks. The Saudi authorities, who had previously claimed close ties with Israel, have now distanced themselves from prior positions on normalization, at least superficially, as evident in their recent statements. They even resisted the U.S. request to denounce the Palestinians.

According to an American official cited by the Axios website, Saudi Arabia and several Arab nations with established ties to Israel have declined Washington's appeal to condemn the Palestinians following the Al-Aqsa storm operation.

The Jerusalem Post and the Saudi media outlet, Saudi Post, also conveyed reports that Saudi Arabia conveyed to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken its decision to terminate all negotiations for the normalization of relations with Israel.

Conclusion

The commencement of the "Al-Aqsa Storm" operation indicates that the path of normalization between Arab leaders and Israel is poised to encounter numerous challenges, challenges that have become apparent since the inception of the Al-Aqsa Storm operation.

As per international experts, the outlook for normalization appears bleaker than the past, and its advancement is not anticipated in the short term, extending to the medium term. Furthermore, the Al-Aqsa storm operation has altered numerous dynamics in the arena of normalizing relations between Arab leaders and Israel.