Stop Bombing the Houthis; Attacking Yemen Spells Disaster for America
In response to the military action by the United States and England in the air attack on Yemen, "Foreign Affairs" magazine emphasized that this attack was the worst option America has pursued.
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The United States is grappling with the Yemen issue, which has implications for the Red Sea and the wider West Asian region, particularly in light of its support for the resilient people of Palestine. This is especially evident following the confrontation between Yemeni naval forces and American military forces in the Red Sea earlier this year.
In this context, Foreign Affairs magazine has published an article entitled "Do Not Bomb the Houthis," wherein it highlights the ineffectiveness of military deterrence in addressing the confrontation with Yemen. It deems such action as the worst option for resolving the conflict with Israel and seeking a solution to the Palestinian issue.
Given the potential impact of Houthi attacks on global trade, the United States is under immense pressure to consider a military response. However, instead of opting for retaliatory strikes, Foreign Affairs magazine argues for a diplomatic approach. Despite the recent surge in media coverage of the Houthis, it's crucial to recognize that they have posed challenges to the United States and its Gulf allies for over two decades.
The historical use of force against the Houthis, whether by the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's former president, or through Saudi Arabia's endeavors to reinstate the ousted government in mid-2010, has inadvertently bolstered the movement's military capabilities and showcased them. This, in turn, has reinforced its legitimacy as a heroic resistance movement within Yemen.
International actors are compelled to react to Houthi attacks, not only to safeguard the shipping route of the Red Sea but also to forestall further escalation in the region. However, the United States is confronted with a range of grim options on how to address this and engage with the Houthis.
Certain politicians and analysts advocate for escalating military tension as the optimal strategy to "restore deterrence" in response to Houthi attacks. Yet, these proponents of airstrikes against the Houthis fail to provide a clear answer to what the next step would entail after the attacks.
It's challenging to foresee how airstrikes will effectively halt Houthi attacks, given their persistence over the past decade. While airstrikes targeting Houthi positions may diminish their capabilities in missile and drone attacks, effectively targeting the Houthis themselves remains a daunting task.
Many experts and observers advocate for a hybrid approach combining diplomacy and deterrence, which they view as the most viable option for the United States to address this entrenched issue in the short term. This approach is particularly favored considering the limited international appetite for military intervention at present. Even Saudi Arabia, which spearheaded the 2015 military intervention against the Houthis, is cautioning the United States to exercise restraint.
Washington cannot depend on the support of its partners in the Persian Gulf. For instance, public opinion in Saudi Arabia now shows greater opposition towards establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, commonly referred to as normalization.
The border countries of the Persian Gulf also lack motivation to put themselves at risk and incur the wrath of their populace, who are already disenchanted with Israel's military assaults on the Gaza Strip and the killing of Palestinians. In fact, except for Bahrain, Arab nations are hesitant to openly participate in the multinational operation announced by the Pentagon in mid-December against Yemen's Houthis.
To effectively counter the threats posed by the Houthis, the United States must ultimately advocate for an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as the broader conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Whether we agree with it or not, the Houthis have linked their attacks to Israel's military actions in Gaza, thereby garnering local and regional support.
It is imperative to devise a sustainable, long-term approach to address both conflicts in order to de-escalate tensions across the region. Halting the Houthis' attacks against Israeli commercial ships or vessels heading for the port of Eilat in Israel is of utmost importance.
There is no doubt that these measures cannot entirely eradicate the threat posed by the Houthis to the interests of America and Israel, along with their regional aggression. Nevertheless, this option remains the best among the limited alternatives for the United States, particularly considering the unsuccessful approaches to Yemen over the past two decades.
Washington must avoid repeating past mistakes. The lessons from several decades of experience indicate that military efforts aimed at deterring the Houthis are unlikely to succeed. Instead, such actions are poised to result in further human casualties in Yemen.
According to observers, the recent attack by the Yemeni army and armed forces on the British ship HMS Richmond in the Red Sea is expected to escalate tensions in the region, potentially ushering it into a new phase of confrontation. This incident complicates the American mission's efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading to additional fronts and to confine confrontations within a specific and limited scope.
Targeting ships in the Red Sea presents the United States with two options: either ignore the attacks, risking the perceived loss of deterrence, or initiate a military response, potentially triggering further retaliation. There is uncertainty regarding the United States' ability to contain military escalation in such a scenario.
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