Modern Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia's Surprising Shift towards Israel Amidst Gaza War
This article delves into the pragmatic considerations behind Saudi Arabia's pursuit of normalized relations with Israel, shedding light on the interplay of political, economic, and strategic interests in the midst of the Gaza war.
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Nader Ali, a Pakistani researcher at the Islamabad Center for Strategic Studies (ISSI), dismisses apprehensions about the potential unraveling of the recent Arab-Israeli peace agreements, widely recognized as the "Abraham Accords." According to Ali, the ongoing conflict in Gaza involving Israel does not necessarily spell doom for these diplomatic accords.
In a comprehensive analysis penned for "Modern Diplomacy" magazine, Ali asserts, "The prospect of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains viable, even in the face of the Gaza war and the tragic casualties in the Gaza Strip. Despite Saudi Arabia's claim to leadership in the Islamic world, the potential for this diplomatic normalization persists."
The reality is, when we scrutinize the events during Israel's military incursion into the Gaza Strip, it becomes apparent that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, along with certain officials, called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the initiation of a ceasefire. However, this wasn't driven by a genuine concern for the daily atrocities suffered by the Palestinian people at the hands of Israel. Rather, it was motivated by the obstacles hindering Riyadh's ongoing normalization efforts with Tel Aviv.
According to the author, Saudi Arabia has reaped numerous benefits from its endeavors to normalize relations with Israel. However, the recent conflict in Gaza has jeopardized many of these gains. This situation underscores a crucial point—the vocal support from top Saudi officials for Palestine and the Palestinian cause isn't primarily rooted in the Arab and Islamic identity of the region. Instead, it is driven by political and strategic considerations, with economic interests becoming increasingly influential.
In the current scenario, we are witnessing Saudi authorities issuing condemnations and calls for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. While one reason for this stance is the Saudis' custodianship of the Two Holy Mosques, compelling them to appear supportive of Palestine to maintain their standing in the Islamic world, the author suggests that beneath these diplomatic expressions lie numerous economic interests that Saudi Arabia seeks to safeguard.
From the author's perspective, Mohammed bin Salman adopts a pragmatic stance, driven by the imperative to diversify the Saudi economy. For him, the stability of the region hinges on the execution and success of his economic plans. The author contends that Bin Salman's considerations go beyond merely halting the tragic violence against the defenseless Palestinian population. Rather, his primary focus is on safeguarding and advancing his economic interests and objectives. The Saudi economy, grappling with a multitude of challenges, reveals only the visible tip of an iceberg, with underlying complexities that often escape public scrutiny.
As per the author's perspective, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and other Arab regimes are acutely aware that their collective goals and economic interests in the Middle East can be realized only through the establishment of regional peace and stability. The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip poses a significant threat to these shared objectives, underscoring the strategic imperative for Israel and Saudi Arabia to prioritize the establishment of peace and security in the region. According to the author, the current war not only jeopardizes their mutual interests but also highlights the paramount importance of achieving stability from a strategic standpoint.
This Pakistani analyst underscores the critical need for cooperation and coordination among Arab and Islamic nations, emphasizing that the interests and goals of these regimes highlight the importance of a collective approach. Simultaneously, the analyst stresses the significance of achieving a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel, viewing it as a pivotal step towards resolving the ongoing conflict in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
Three weeks prior to the commencement of the Operation Al-Aqsa storm, Mohammad bin Salman asserted in an interview with Fox News that Saudi Arabia and Israel were steadily drawing "closer" to normalizing their relations. Riyadh, in its pursuit of normalized ties with Tel Aviv, sought American security guarantees and backing for the advancement of its nuclear programs. However, many political circles globally view these conditions as potential obstacles in the negotiations for signing a peace agreement.
A crucial aspect in the negotiation process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was the matter of Palestine and the Palestinians. Contrary to the assertions made by Saudi authorities, this issue did not hold significant importance from their perspective and did not rank among the primary topics of the negotiations.
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