Sinwar's Assassination: Catalyst for Ceasefire or Fuel for Escalation in Gaza?
Daniel Byman explores the implications of Yahya Sinwar's assassination for Hamas and the ongoing war in Gaza
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The assassination of Yahya Sinwar by Israel is not expected to be a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict in Gaza, according to Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He argues that while Sinwar, who recently led Hamas' political bureau, is now deceased, this development does not directly address the intricate governance challenges in Gaza and may result in increased resistance against Israel.
In an article for Foreign Policy, Byman explains that although Hamas has lost several key figures such as Ismail Haniyeh and, reportedly, Mohammed Deif, the organization will still have less-experienced leaders ready to step in. Thus, Sinwar's death could lead to a greater chance of achieving a ceasefire, given that he had a more confrontational approach toward Israel and his strategy aimed to undermine the occupation’s international standing and its ties with the United States.
Byman warns that the intense Israeli military actions in Gaza serve as a cautionary tale for future resistance leaders regarding the risks of challenging a relentless foe. He notes that despite Israel asserting it has killed a significant portion of Hamas's fighters, the group may see value in regrouping and rebuilding, even as the conflict has resulted in substantial Palestinian casualties.
Conversely, new leadership within Hamas might decide to ramp up their resistance efforts. Under Sinwar's command, Hamas had inflicted considerable damage on Israel, revitalized the Palestinian cause, and marred Israel's global image. Following significant losses among their ranks and a high toll on Palestinian lives, there is a strong motivation for revenge within the resistance movement.
Byman emphasizes that despite the brutal tactics employed by Israel, "Hamas endures" as a resilient resistance movement. Historical evidence shows that it has bounced back from the deaths of its leaders before, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to disregard calls from the Israeli public for a negotiated resolution.
In addition, Hamas has conveyed to other Palestinian factions the importance of unity during these critical times. In the face of ongoing Israeli offensives, Hamas has condemned the recent attacks in Jabalia and northern Gaza, highlighting them as proof of the ineffectiveness of Israeli occupation.
On the anniversary of Operation al-Aqsa Flood, Hamas characterized October 7 as a pivotal date in their struggle, portraying it as a legitimate reaction to what they see as Zionist attempts to obliterate their national identity. They further accused their adversaries, whom they refer to as Nazis, of committing numerous atrocities, including attacks that amount to acts of genocide against their people over the past year.
The group praised the resilience of the people of Gaza, attributing their tenacity and support for the resistance as a factor that has thwarted enemy plans. They asserted that the October 7 operation has elevated the Palestinian cause on the global stage and disrupted conspiracies against them. Moreover, they condemned the targeted killings of resistance leaders, claiming these actions would only serve to fortify their resolve.
Hamas concluded by emphasizing that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation symbolizes unity and collaboration among regional resistance movements in the ongoing fight for al-Quds. They expressed gratitude for the sacrifices made by Hezbollah, the Islamic Group in Lebanon, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq during Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, acknowledging the crucial support they provided.
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